Nigeria: Recovery Mode

Let's do the worst first. Yesterday's Q3 GDP release (yes on a Saturday!) indicated that the nation is officially in recession after two consecutive quarterly declines in y/y activity. That makes two recessionary episodes in the last 4 years. But the good news is that the recovery has started despite subdued oil prices, weaker oil sector output and ongoing pandemic challenges. We have pencilled in 80% chance of a positive Q4 print.